多ゾーン年齢階級別人口シミュレーション・モデル

概要

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This paper describes a model to forecast population which is categorized by sex, by 5 year age-groups, and by zones. The objective region is Kansai Region which is disaggregated into 120 zones. The model estimates natural increase in each zone by taking account of differences in the marital status of women by age-groups, as well as the differences in age-specific birth rates and death rates. The total social increase for each zone is first estimated on the basis of the following variables in each zone : (i) employment potential obtained from the demand for labor force, which can be determined by industrial developments ; (ii) increment in labor force, which is obtained by both the population age structure and the labor force participation rate ; (iii) increment in housing stock ; (iv) business & commercial employment, etc. Then, the social increase by sex and age-groups is estimated by using the migration rate by sex and age-groups (which is called as the migration pattern in this paper) for each zone. One of the main characteristics of the model is that the migration pattern for each zone is taken as one of the endogenous variables which changes depending on the development of various socioeconomic activities in each zone. The final test of the constructed model is performed, and it is confirmed that the model has sufficient validity. Some of simulation results are also presented.
1987-11-15