社会経済シミュレーションモデルのための立地関数と時間距離についての基礎的考察

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This paper deals with a formulation for constructing a forecasting model in a highly-disaggregated region. As the divided subregions are very close, mutual influences cannot be ignored in forecasting the future of the subregions. Various models have been developed so far as a model to forecast the socioeconomic activities in mutually related multiple regions, such as a land use model, etc. However, the theoretical fundation to estimate future changes is not sufficiently presented in these models. In this paper, taking the socioeconomic variables in the region as state variables, their changes are described by using the state equation. It can be shown that the state equation can be simplified to a linear equation with respect to unknown parameters by introducing the potential defined by W. Isard, if we postulate some assumptions which are considered to be reasonable. For the purpose of investigating the applicability of this formulation, a positive study is performed by taking Kansai Region as an objective region. First, a model is constructed to estimate time distances among subregions which are necessary to calculate the value of various potential in each subregion. Second, population potential and various employment potential are obtained and are discussed. Finally, taking employments by industries as state variables, unknown parameters of the linearized state equation are identified. It can be proved that the obtained results are valid not only from the viewpoints of allocation theory but also from those of statistics.
日本シミュレーション学会の論文
1986-03-15

社会経済シミュレーションモデルのための立地関数と時間距離についての基礎的考察

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