ベイジアン信頼性解析を適用した非定期構造検査に関する研究 : (第2報)輸送機主翼構造部位の信頼性解析

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The purpose of this study is to perform a Bayesian reliability analysis for developing optimal non-periodic inspection schedules and estimating values of uncertain parameters from field data collected during in-service inspections for practical aircraft structural elements. It is suitable that information obtained from inspection results through the long service term is utilized in order to examine the effectiveness of this reliability analysis. However, it is close impossible that such actual data is obtained to the actuality. Then, the previous report adopted the damage-tolerant structural element in typical fuselage 'structures modeled by referring to various design data and fracture processes. Furthermore, the failure rate function which uses for this reliability analysis was also examined, and a sufficient knowledge was obtained. Transport wing lower surface structures with a number of fatigue-critical elements are used as a realistic structural model for the present analysis. Each element consisting of a skin panel and stringers, is subjected to flight-by-flight loading and is designed by the damage tolerance criterion. Probabilistic factors considered in this analysis are fatigue crack initiation and propagation, crack detection capability and failure rate before and after crack, initiation. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the Bayesian reliability analysis for development of inspection schedule and for the estimation of uncertain model parameters.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文

ベイジアン信頼性解析を適用した非定期構造検査に関する研究 : (第2報)輸送機主翼構造部位の信頼性解析

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