標本検査と構造信頼性維持について : 第2報 : ベイズの方法による母数推定

概要

論文の詳細を見る
Fleet leader and rotational sampling inspection programs for aged aircraft structures are performed to detect fatigue damage and to extend their service lives. Although the rotational inspection has recently been recommended instead of the fleet leader inspection on account of higher detectability of fatigue damage and operators' advantage, there are almost no discussions on the comparison between effects of both inspections. It is considered that the two inspections should be evaluated from two kinds of capability, that is, reduction of number of failed aircraft and estimation of unknown parameters. By the reliability analysis on the statistical model developed appropriately, the first report concludes that, as compared with the fleet leader inspection, the rotational inspection can detect more fatigue cracks and reduce the number of failed aircraft. The present report intends to evaluate the two inspections with emphasis on capability of estimating parameters determined apriori with low confidence. Thus. Bayesian method whose effectiveness has already been demonstrated is applied to the present reliability analysis. The numerical example indicates that the parameters estimated from the results of the rotational inspection are more reliable than those from the fleet leader inspection.
社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文