デルファイ法による溶接法の未来予測

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This report is related to a case study on a new approach to technological forecasting of welding engineering. which seems to be one of the most appropriate methods, reviewing various methods for technological forecasting. In the modern age when the outputs of technological development have been applied and diffused in an exceedingly rapid rate, it would be next to impossible to establish more dynamic goals and development programs for the development of technology without predicting the possibility of technological development in terms of what, when and where. Under these circumstances, OECD reports that there are as many methods for technological forecasting as one hundred and dozens in kind. It is, however, true that most of the technological forecasting reported are nothing but concept and there are very few cases that the methods have been successfully applied. The case study reported here is to analyze the technoliglical forecasting in terms of its orientation, problems to be solved and a certain extent of its possibility, using so-called normative method and exploratory method, specifically about new segment of welding engineering which will stand for one of the major basic engineerings for production engineering in the future, and as a result we forecasted the future fifteen years later in terms of intuitive forecasting method (Delphi method). Consequently we have successfully, though not necessarily satisfyingly, made clear the possibility of 43 items range of newly developed welding engineering and its timing of realization as well as the conditions necessary for the forecasting and its realization. The purpose of this report is to review the technoligical forecasting methods and their procedures developed at the early stage.
1971-07-25

デルファイ法による溶接法の未来予測

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