噴出量の累積変化からみた火山の噴火史と地殻応力場(<特集>火山活動と地殻応力場)

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A magma-discharge stepdiagram, which shows a relationship between time and cumulative discharge volume/mass of a volcano, is a useful tool for estimating a magma supply/discharge system beneath the volcano. We propose a model to explain the shape of the magma-discharge stepdiagram, and estimate effects of an abrupt change in crustal stress/strain field, which can modulate the shape of the stepdiagram. Using the shape of the stepdiagram, volcanoes can be classified into four types : time-predictable (TP), volume-predictable (VP), strictly-periodic (SP), and nonpredictable (NP) volcanoes. In the TP volcano, the length of a dormant period is proportional to the magma-discharge volume of the preceded eruption. In the VP volcano, the discharge volume of an eruption is proportional to the length of the preceded dormancy. In the SP volcano, both a length of a dormant period and a discharge volume of an eruption do not change. In the NP volcano, both a length of a dormant period and a discharge volume of an eruption do not have clear predictability. The predictability in the TP, VP, and SP volcanoes can be explained using a simple magma supply/discharge model beneath a volcano, assuming that ascent pressure at the top of a magma reservoir (P_m) monotonously increases in a dormant period, and that magma-discharge volume is proportional to the decrease of P_m at an eruption. Besides these two assumptions, the TP and VP volcanoes need a constant upper limit (P_u) and a constant lower limit (P_l) of P_m, respectively. The SP volcano needs constant P_u and P_l. The magma-discharge stepdiagrams of the TP, VP, and SP volcanoes can be modified by a large intrusive event, changes of physico-chemical parameters in a magma reservoir, a magma-supply rate from the lower crust or mantle, structural evolution of a magma-supply/discharge system, a small eruption which does not affect the predictability of a magma-discharge stepdiagram, and an abrupt change in a crustal stress/strain field. Such modifications spoil the predictability in the stepdiagrams and thus make the NP volcano. An abrupt change in a crustal stress/strain field causes a change in P_m and/or P_u and thus can modify a magma-discharge stepdiagram. Particularly, an increase in P_m and/or a decrease in P_u can trigger an eruption. An upward shift of a magma-discharge stepdiagram may be a key to finding such a trigger of an eruption and to estimating mechanisms of triggering.
特定非営利活動法人日本火山学会の論文
1994-09-20

噴出量の累積変化からみた火山の噴火史と地殻応力場(<特集>火山活動と地殻応力場)

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