422 エネルギー負荷パターンの経年変化の推定(新エネルギー(I))(空気調和・冷凍技術)

概要

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In recent years, energy conservation is one of large social problems and many studies with respect to combined heat and power have investigated the potential of energy saving. It is required to predict energy demand in the future in order to estimate how CHP can reduce primary energy consumption. The objectives of this study are analyzing the trend of daily load curves for electric power, cooling and heating in residential and commercial sectors ; and forecasting future load curves in the years of 2010 and 2020. Energy demand in each time period is correlated to GDP and seasonal temperature, and regression analysis gave good estimation with correlation coefficient of almost unity for most of periods. The results show that peak demands for cooling and heating in 2020 grow 1.9 times and 1.6 times as much as that in 1997, respectively, under the assumption of GDP growth rate of 2%.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2001-07-09