Dynamical System Theory of Migration

概要

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Empirical method of constructing a dynamical system is introduced to elucidating causal relations among components representing the dynamical system, e.g., the world economy. The material used in the present study is taken exclusively from Morgan's study on migration so that our method can be compared with the earlier covariance analysis by Morgan (1985). Principal component analysis is employed as the mathematical tool for constructing the dynamical system economy. In the first place, choosing variables representing economic environment as given in Morgan, we construct a multi-dimensional phase space by means of various combinations of these variables, in which the dynamical system is embedded. Principal components and their importance are determined as the static description of the system. Then, the variation of emigrants is added as the additional variable to the previous principal components in the extended principal component analysis. In this way, the driving force of emigration, can be elucidated as far as the information is included in the input data even implicitly. The proportion of driving forces outsides the input data system is given by 2^<-1/2> times the square root of the minimum eigen-value of the extended principal component analysis. Morgan's data system is shown to include information for only 50 % of driving forces of emigration because of the deficiency of information on overseas economic conditions.
近畿大学の論文
1996-02-20