Basic Method of Dynamic Modeling of the Global Change

概要

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The method of dynamic modeling is explored and applied to the global change. The repetitive use of principal component analyses (PCA) in multidimensional phase space describing the dynamical state of the global environment is the main tactics of the method. For various quantities monitored at sites distributed over the entire globe, amplitudes of variation in shorter time scales as well as the relevant time averages are taken as additional variables in order for revealing the nonlinear couplings among different time scales. Spatial and temporal derivatives of all those variables are then taken also as additional variables for describing the evolution of the dynamical state of the system. The first PCA is intended to obtain the description of the system in terms of the principal components, and the second PCA is to describe the dynamical properties of the system. A method of maximum-entropy adjustment of the data is also explored. Thus, large amount of fragmentary data scattered in wide range of accuracy can be used in the PCA constructively, and the applicability of the method of dynamic modeling is greatly extended in the study of the global change as well as in other branches of the natural history.
近畿大学の論文
1993-01-30