生乳・乳製品市場におけるチーズ基金の経済分析
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概要
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Japanese markets for dairy and dairy products have been undergoing substantial policy changes since 1987. Among these policy changes, the policy in which natural cheese production was taken out of the Deficiency Payment System and the start of the cheese fund are important. An econometric model is useful for analyzing the effect of these policy changes on the Japanese milk and dairy products market. The existing Japanese dairy products models are Yuize and OECD AGLINK. Of these, the former was developed in 1976 and requires re-estimation and restructuring to better account for joint butter/skim milk powder production, which Yuize treated separately. The OECD model accommodates joint production of butter and skim milk powder. However the butter and skim milk powder supply are determined by their demand without simultaneity. The first objective of this paper is to develop an econometric model which is able to analyze the effect of the Cheese Fund and includes joint production of butter and the skim milk powder. The second objective is to examine two aims of the Cheese Fund, namely, the enlargement of the domestic natural cheese production and the adjustment of the fluid milk supply and demand, and determine if these aims are accomplished or not. The key results of this paper are as follows. 1) If the payment quota is less than some quantity, the policy in which natural cheese production was taken in of the Deficiency Payment System is rational for a milk manufacture, and if the payment quota is over some quantity, the policy in which natural cheese production was taken out of the Deficiency Payment System is rational for a milk manufacture. 2) We can estimate that the Cheese Fund accomplished the adjustment of the fluid milk supply and demand, but we cannot judge that the enlargement of the domestic natural cheese production was carried out. 3) The Cheese Fund caused an increase in the fluid milk supply from Hokkaidou to Tofuken and decreased fluid milk prices and average milk prices in Hokkaidou and Tofuken.
- 北海道東海大学の論文
著者
関連論文
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