Reconfirmation on ‘the Japanese Rice Productivity Stagnation Hypothesis’: Evidence from Regional Contributions to Japan’s Rice Productivity Growth and Test for Productivity Convergence

概要

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This research aims to reconsider ‘the Japanese Rice Productivity Stagnation Hypothesis’. ‘The Japanese Rice Productivity Stagnation Hypothesis’ is that the growth rate of Japan’s rice productivity will decline to zero percent in the future. Analytical frameworks are to calculate the regional contributions to Japan’s rice productivity growth and test for convergence through comparisons of productivity growth between the pre-Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1957-1970 (hereafter pre-RACP period) and the Rice Acreage Control Programmes period 1971-1995 (hereafter RACP period), using the input-oriented Malmquist TFP indices. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, the results of the regional contributions to Japan’s rice productivity growth show that Tohoku made the most significant positive contribution in the pre-RACP period while Tohoku made the most significant negative contribution in the RACP period. Second, the results of panel unit root tests for pre-RACP and RACP periods exhibit that regional differentials between prefectures are narrowing. These results suggest ‘the Japanese Rice Productivity Stagnation Hypothesis’ is also supported in this paper.