都市ごみ量の季節変動モデルと不規則成分に関する研究

概要

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The purpose of this study is to develop a seasonal fluctuation model using information from a time series analysis on the collection amount of municipal solid waste. In this study, we make an analysis of seasonal fluctuation to show the relationship between the irregular component in a time series and the scale of waste collection amount. Firstly, we defined the cyclical, seasonal, and irregular components in a time series, and developed a seasonal fluctuation model with a finite Fourier series. Secondly, we examined the data size required for an application of the model to consider the effect of temporal changes on the components of the model. It was shown that the model application required a period of more than five years for an adequate data size. The abstraction of the seasonal component was then not affected by the data period. Thirdly, in order to determine the quantitative characteristics of the component composition, we used the contributory ratio ρk that is calculated from the square of the amplitude Xk. Lastly, we applied the model to data on household and commercial waste in several cities. It was found that the irregular component propotion decreases as the amount of the waste collection increases.
2003-05-31