北関東自動車道整備効果の計量経済学的分析-栃木県地域の分割モデルによる地域経済への影響把握-

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The purpose of this research is to construct an econometric model that can comprehend the social-economic effects of the Kita-Kanto Expressway and an evaluation of regional development plan by running simulation with the help of this model.Tochigi prefecture consists of twelve cities and thirty-seven towns. We diveided the area into thirteen districts. This model contains thirteen sub-models of each district. Each sub-model is composed of five blocking parts (population, employment, production, citizensincome and public finance). Nineteen variables are endogenous (16 estimated and 3 definitional equations) and twenty-seven variables are exogenous. Thirteen exogenous variables were the results of the North-Kanto Area (NKA) model. Those were used as the control total values. The NKA model is an inter-regional model of Tochigi, Gunma and Ibaraki prefectures. The estimation period was sixteen fiscal years from 1976 to 1991. The estimation methods were OLS.The aim of this analysis is to make clear the influence to regional economy by the change of transportation time, investment and land planning. We run several simulations for 1976-1991 by changing the three exogenous variables with the NKA model.
日本地域学会の論文