自動車交通による環境変化が地域社会経済に与えるインパクトの計量経済学的分析

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Recently, atmospheric pollution caused by automobiles becomes the serious problem. Especially in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa Prefecture), in spite of induction of the total amount control to stationary source of occurrence and enforcement of several plans of the control to exhaust gas by automobiles, the achievement rate of the environmental standard level of NO2 is still low, the pollution by nitrogen oxides in Tokyo Prefecture needs to be devised immediate and effective plans.However modern life is closely related with automobile traffic. When the automobile traffic volume is decreased forcibly in order to decrease the concentration of NO2, we expect that the economic influence will be diversely caused.We build a macro-econometric model to measure economic impacts in TMA under the condition that the traffic-situation and environment are changed, and examine the influence of policies of atmospheric pollution (NO2) in TMA.The model consists of eight blocks (population, employment, expenditure, production, income, capital stock, land price, potential) and contains 168 variables. 145 variables are endogenous (122 estimated and 23 definitional equations) and 23 variables are exogenous. Concurrently, two projects were held, and they studied the automobile traffic and the environmental changes. So, the traffic-situation and the concentration of NO2 are exogenous variables. Potential type variables of income and population are used to describe the inter-regional linkages in various equations.After the final test, the model could properly explain the impacts on TMAs regional economy by the changes of the environment and the automobile traffic. Then, we applied the model to do several simulation studies to clarify various policy effects.
日本地域学会の論文

自動車交通による環境変化が地域社会経済に与えるインパクトの計量経済学的分析

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