統合評価モデルの話題(<特集>地球温暖化の気候科学とエネルギー)

概要

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Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have supported decision making for climate change response measures in the world and will expect to make a larger role for such complex issues in the future. At the same time, better use of IAMs will be required for policy making on climate change with better understanding of the models and the results for making the role. This paper summarized the current trends of developments of IAMs and analyses. In addition, we introduced recent international projects on comparison of IAM's analyses including the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF). The current analyses for the climate change response measures through IAMs will focus particularly on technology limitations and limited participations of countries in climate mitigation regime considering real policy conditions rather than the "idealized world". The outcomes from the IAM analyses including the model comparison projects will also be expected to contribute to the forthcoming IPCC fifth assessment report.
2013-03-20