権威主義体制下の単一政党優位と名目的合意形成 : エジプトの憲法修正過程(2007)とイエメンの選挙法審議過程(2007-2010)をめぐる政治力学

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概要

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• The purpose of this article is to clarify the implications of nominal consensus building between authoritarian rulers and the opposition parties under authoritarian single party dominance. Under authoritarian regimes, wherein a multiparty system has been adopted or the opposition parties have been at least substantially accepted, some rulers can convene a special forum for building a consensus with the (at least some) opposition parties to discuss on important political issues such as constitutional amendments. Why is it? Based on the cases of the "National Dialogue" in the Middle East, this article attempts to clarify the backgrounds, rulers' willingness, categories, political effects, and theoretical significances of the nominal consensus building. These temporary, special forums can take different shapes and have different effects. The difference of size (small/large) can affect the effectiveness of rulers' "divide and rule" strategy. The difference of period (short/long) can affect the attainability of rulers' intended purposes. The "Sub-Committee" about the constitutional amendments in Egypt in 2007 was a case of a small and short-term meeting. The meeting helped "divide and rule" and made an intended effect of the stable conduct of proceedings. On the contrary, the "National Dialogue" about the amended electoral law in Yemen after 2007 was a case of a larger and long-term meeting. The meeting fostered unity within opposition parties and resulted in an unintended consequence, namely, the postponement of policy concessions.

• 2012-07-15

著者

• 今井 真士

  日本学術振興会

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