近年の住環境の変化とその影響による木造家屋在住者の地震時死者発生リスクの変遷

概要

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This paper discusses an effective strategy of seismic strengthening of wooden houses dominant in Japan in aim for reduction of death toll. In the first part, we construct the equations by which the death toll in a district can be estimated in relation with the rate of seismic strengthening. It is developed by rebuilding or seismic repairing, and is worsen as aging of houses. In the second part, we applied the equations to all prefectures in Japan and estimated the temporal change of death reduction to figure out the effect of rebuilding and of changing where people live. As a result, we found out that in a case with a probability of 2% it brings the worst scenario and in 1995 census data with 140,000 deaths or over. In the case of a probability of 2% and in 2005 census data inhabitants killed would be around 90,000.