福祉国家と経済成長 : 構造方程式モデルによる収斂理論の検討

概要

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This paper intend to examine the Convergence Theory about welfare state using quantative analysis. Wilensky (1975) defined welfare state as social security expenditure per head and constructed path diagram to discover the determinants of public expenditure. He conclude in every contries, economic growth affect level of social security expenditure via the percentage of people aged 65years and over and the age of social security system. But in examine convergence thory, path analysis can't explain expected multiplier of public expenditure. Social security spending as public expenditure that used independent variable by Wilensky can affect economic growth. And it often told enlarged welfare expenditure arised "welfare backrush" and "English sickness". So in this article, it should constructing non fully recursive structual equation model about social security expenditure of 30 countries in 1980. Structual equation model presented here shows that it exist the circulating effect between GNP per head, social security expenditure as percent of GNP at factor cost and the rate of economic growth. And social expenditure as percent of GNP have a negative effect for the rate of economic growth. In conclusion, therefore, economic growth do not always increase social security expenditure.
一般社団法人日本社会福祉学会の論文
1994-12-25