国際ロジスティクスサイクルと日本経済の構造転換

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This paper aims to demonstrate the existence of international logistics cycle generated by the modal choice behavior of shippers. In practice since 1994 the air cargo export transport has been preferred to container cargo export one, which will indicate the epoch making structural change in the shippers' logistics behavior. Which type of long term cycle can be found in the economic leading route from Japan to US? Certainly in the economic environment of global linkage, US economy is the leader and the other is follower. Especially Asian economy plays the important role to buffer the risk of global economic fluctuation. From this point of view the modal choice behavior of international physical distribution between container ship and air machine will be able to be explained by the difference of total costs, opportunity cost and buffer cost on three important export routes from Japan to US, EU and Asia. Based on the econometric analysis on the Japanese export physical distribution toward US, about 16 years' logistics cycle can be found as the representative one. In this cycle the period of "Japan's lost decade" in 1990s is not stagnant, but rather potentially innovative. Or it can be called for the early stage of innovation. Why such difference can coexist between Japan's business cycle and the international logistics cycle? This indicates the essentials of "Japan's lost decade" , which means the demand deficit period under the innovative technological progress.

国際ロジスティクスサイクルと日本経済の構造転換

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