景況感の「格差」 : 南大阪景況調査と日銀短観との比較

概要

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Through the special collaborative research projects (02-R-154, 05-R-181, 08-R-199) funded by Momoyama Gakuin University Research Institute, a considerably wide-ranging business survey has been ongoing since the second quarter of 2004 with the cooperation of the Sakai City Industial Promotion Center. In this article a brief outline of our activities from April 2005 to March 2008 is given fist, and the result of an econometric analysis based on our survey data is discussed. It was discovered that the movements of some diffusion indices of our local regional economy (the south Osaka area) are significantly different from those of some similar indices in "Tankan", the single largest national business survey in Japan conducted by BOJ. The gap between the local and the national indices is widening, which implies that the local companies are becoming increasingly more pessimistic than the government's official statistics suggest. This discovery shows the significance of our unique business survey and the necessity of inquiring into the economic background to the gap.
2009-07-20