巨大火山噴火の影響範囲評価のための地理情報システム構築

概要

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High-level radioactive waste has to be disposed in a stable geological formation at a depth of more than 300 meters. Infrequent geological and climate processes and their effects, however, can not be perfectly ignored in 10^5- to 10^6-years long-term future assessments. Therefore, we must evaluate the hazard area and probability of infrequent disruption which will not be excluded by the selection program of the final repository site. This study deals with gigantic volcanic eruptions, forming large collapse calderas, as one of the assessments and constructs the GIS-tool for its scenario analysis. Our GIS-tool is composed of (1) database of eruptive history of large-caldera volcanoes in Japan during Quaternary time and (2) program to calculate two-type circular hazard areas. The first hazard area is defined as a crustal deformation zone due to growth of the magma chamber using a sill model. The second hazard area shows a run-out distance of a large-volume of pyroclastic flow on the ground using a subcritical flow model (Bursik and Woods, 1996).
特定非営利活動法人日本火山学会の論文
2009-04-30