2 地球温暖化に伴う風速分布の変化と風災リスクの地域的傾向に関する研究(A.被害予測と緊急対応,一般論文発表)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
A wind speed for building design at the end of 21^<st> century is evaluated by typhoon simulation model that generates hypothetical typhoons using Monte Carlo simulation. Occurrence and intensity of tropical cyclones projected by global atmospheric models are then applied to probabilities of typhoon simulation model. The wind speeds of 50-year return period in the western Japan are projected to be stronger in the future. For the purpose of predicting a degree of wind damage, index value that correlates with insured loss is calculated. It is estimated that insured losses from high intensity typhoons will be higher in the future. In addition, the index value with each prefecture is calculated, and insured loss of densely populated prefecture will be higher in the future.
地域安全学会の論文