後向き帰納法は現実に使われているか? : 実験による分析

概要

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This paper studies whether decision makers really use backward induction in their real life. Our approach is to test the model including present bias suggested by O'Donoghue and Rabin in 'Doing it Now or Later' is applicable or not. We studied it as real choices of subjects in several ways. We make our subjects select the order that they will present in their class. We made it different in two ways. (1) We made a difference in the degree of difficulty of preparing the presentation. (2) difference in the evaluation of presentation by the order: The earlier student presents their task, his evaluation is higher. In both cases, we found a strong aversion to be the 1st presenter. This result suggests the present bias because almost all subjects selected the first half weeks of alternatives. We also gave subjects a reward option with self control: One class cancelation with 5 days short extensions added to usual class. Most selected day to cancel was surprisingly the last day of alternatives for subjects. This result means they use their choice as a commitment device not to avoid their class. This fact means students use backward induction when they are planning the future. Therefore we can conclude that people actually use backward induction in their planning.
敬愛大学・千葉敬愛短期大学の論文