ある地震津波流言騒動 : 揺籠期の地震予知とメディアの情報伝達
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This paper reports that a rumor of an earthquake and tsunami caused confusion in the South Kinki area in 1973. The confusion was widely observed at the Rias coast area where people had frequently suffered from tsunami. As a result of the rumor, the villagers took their furniture out and some of them began building refuge houses. Phone calls swamped the local weather bureau. The beginning of this cofusion was the earthquake prediction by an amateur scientist and the news was reported all over Japan by newspapers, magazines and T.V. People at the South Kinki area had frequently been struck by tsunami and tidal waves caused by typhoon, so they were more sensitive to the problem and accepted the rumor as fact. They felt they had to protect themseves from the disaster. In those days, scientific predictions of earthquake was being developed and seismologists were trying very hard to respond to social needs of the people. But the explanation given by the scientists was vague and elusive. Though reporting those predictions in the news was gradually accepted and was not "taboo" anymore, the stance and attitude toward dealing with the news were not established for both senders and receivers. Furthermore senders were not well acquainted with the new science. The news of a coming earthquake, once released, become more and more sensational. The mass media played a vital role in spreading the rumor - and the confusion. The cofusion was not accidentally but inevitable partly because of the immature functioning of the mass media.
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