ランダム性の経年変化を考慮した確率降水量の非定常頻度解析

概要

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A lot of meteorological disasters associated with abnormal weather occurred frequently in recent years. Consequently they caused highly concern about climatic abnormal changes. On the basis of such background, this paper suggests the estimation method for T-year return period precipitation in which the time-sequence-related randomness was taken into consideration. In order to measure this randomness, the entropy as an index for randomness was used. And then this estimation method was applied to annual maximum daily precipitation, which is generally considered to be following the Gumbel distribution. As a result from observed data in Japan during about 100 years, the 25 mm/day increase of 100-year return period precipitation during next 30 years at some observatory stations is shown.
日本自然災害学会の論文
2008-02-29