発電機器のベイズ解析に基づいた損傷確率評価手法の開発(機械力学,計測,自動制御)

概要

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In the seismic design of nuclear power plant, it is recently considered to apply the probabilistic method in addition to the deterministic method. The deterministic method secures the seismic safety of a nuclear power plant by veryfying that the calculated stress on the equipment is lower than allowable stress in the design criteria. The seismic prob ability safety assessment (Seismic PSA) method secures seismic safety by veryfying that the probability of reactor core failure is lower than a certain value. In seismic PSA, it is important to estimate the fragility of the equipment for precise assessment. Therefore, in this paper we dealt with a method using the Bayesian approach to generate a fragility curve of power plant from a multi-specimen test, and investigated the influence of the sample size driving the fragility evaluation test.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2005-12-25