235 発電機器のベイズ解析に基づいた損傷確率評価手法の開発

概要

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In the seismic design of nuclear power plant, it is recently considered to use probability method in additon to certainty method. The latter method is to secure seismic safety of nuclear power plant by corroborating that calculated stress of equipment is lower than allowable stress of design criteria. And the former method, which is called Seismic Probability Safety Assessment (Seismic PSA), is to secure seismic safety by corroborating that probability of reactor core failure is lower than a certain value. In Seismic PSA, it is important to estimate fragility of equipment for precise assessment; therefore, in this paper we dealt with a method using Bayesian Approach for generating a fragility curve and a design fragility curve from a multi-specimen test.
一般社団法人日本機械学会の論文
2003-09-15