少子高齢化と持続可能な開発との関連 : 出生率回復への批判

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While the global and local list of environmental problems is long and growing, it's difficult to be certain of the extent to which population growth is a contributing factor. Clearly, the relationship between population and the environment is very complex. To explore it further, we need first to look at total fertility rate and population growth. The human population at the global level has been growing exponentially over time. The absolute number of humans has continued to increase to more than 6 billion at the end of the twenty century, and the distribution of the each country's population has changed, due to differing birth and death rates in a country even if in a developing country like China or India. Developing countries' population also continues to increase much faster than developed countries; however the increasing rate of population has been decreasing in decades. The three factors which have the great impact on the population of any nation are total fertility rate (TFR), international migration and mortality rate (death rate). The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime. A TFR of 2.1 is considered to be the replacement rate, which is the fertility rate needed to keep the population stable if there is no net migration. The 2002 estimate of the world average TFR is 2.6, ranging from 1.1 in Slovenia to 7.0 in Angola. Most developed countries have TFRs below the replacement rate of 2.1 and the average TFR of high income countries is 1.7 in 2002. The age structure of a population can also contribute to its growth. A population with a large percentage of people in the economic active years (15-64) will continue to increase production and technological invention even if parents do not produce enough children to replace themselves. This is because there are fewer children who need to health care and primary education without contribution for economic activities to product but human investment. World has many environmental problems: land degradation, endangered species, decreasing tropical forest for land clearing, declining fish stocks, air pollution, and vulnerable water supplies. There are more, but that will do for a start under population growth. Many environmental problems can be attributed to poor management techniques or policy failure for the protection. Such factors are largely independent of population, but the sheer number of people can also contribute to the problems. Consider, for example, the issue of consumption of material resources. As monetary wealth has increased, so has consumption. As a nation we now own more goods, use more energy, eat more processed food and need larger amount of resources for their higher standard of living than ever before. All this consumption can create environmental problems. Factors such as population growth, population de-aging combine with high-consumption patterns at the international level to put stresses on the environment. There is a limit to the environment in terms of supply of natural resources including forest, water and soil, and the ability to absorb emissions of greenhouses gas and waste products. Examples include the rate of tree growth for timber harvesting, the available fresh water for irrigation and human consumption, and the time required for the recycling of organic waste. Land degradation, loss of forest cover, pollution of water and air, soil erosion and loss of biodiversity are all occurring at a fast pace, and are evidence of the impact of an increasing population on the environment.
東海大学の論文
2006-03-30

少子高齢化と持続可能な開発との関連 : 出生率回復への批判

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