北海道における少子化の人口学的特徴
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概要
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This paper focuses on the demographic character of fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is a part of the three-years study (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (C)(2) NO.15530335) to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design its system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors. In this paper, as the first step of this research, using time-series and periodical data in Census, Vital Statistics and other sources, we analyzed trends and demographic determinants of total fertility rates and identified the demographic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. The important findings are: 1. Before and shortly after World War II, Hokkaido had one of the highest fertility rates in Japan as an agricultural rural area. In 1960's, it began to lost this position and has stayed at a low fertility rank among the Japanese prefectures from 1970's to present. While Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level is very stable at about -10% since 1974, Sapporo's gap to national standard is growing parallel with Tokyo. 2. Even though breaking down the total fertility rate of Hokkaido shows the very low fertility level of Sapporo and an almost near standard level "of the other parts of this prefecture, the impact of the Sapporo's large population volume on Hokkaido's total fertility level is expected at most -0.01 according to the result of model calculation. Therefore, the low fertility of Hokkaido is not only because of Sapporo. 3. Factor analysis of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of Hokkaido shows the low marital fertility and the low proportion of married women cause the lower fertility level than the national standard. It is very unique among Japanese prefectures that both factor has almost same weight on low fertility. 4. The low marital fertility is characteristic among women over 25 both in Sapporo and the other parts of the prefecture. 5. Approximate parity distribution can be derived from the number of children who are under 15 and living with their mother who are between 35-39. According to the National Census 2000, Hokkaido shows two peaks in its parity distribution. One peak consists of childless married women and mothers with one child. The other peak consists of mothers with 4 or more children. 6. The high level of artificial stillbirths rate is observed in Hokkaido. It suggests the high abortion rate in this prefecture but its impact on TFR is at most -0.01 according to the result of model calculation. 7. The high divorce rate and high proportion of divorced women are also observed in Hokkaido. However, the low proportion of married women among the women ages over 25 in Hokkaido depends chiefly on the low first marriage rates among them.
- 北海道東海大学の論文
- 2005-03-25