北海道における少子化の社会経済要因
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概要
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This paper focuses on the socio-economic factors of fertility decline in Hokkaido. This is a part of the three-year study (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) (C) (2) NO, 15530335) to clarify the trends and determinants of fertility decline observed in Hokkaido and to design a system dynamic model including demographic, socio-cultural and economic factors. In this paper, as the second step of this research, we analyzed socio-economic determinants of the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates, and identified the socio-economic character of recent fertility decline in Hokkaido, compared with other prefectures in Japan. This is done by using multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data found in Vital Statistics of Japan, Social Indicators by Prefecture of Statistics Bureau in Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and in other sources. The important findings are: 1. The results of multiple linear regression analysis of socio-economic cross section data in 2000 indicate the distribution of educational status and industrial labor structure are the two most influential factors both on the age-specific first marriage rates and the age-specific marital fertility rates in Japanese prefectures. In this context, Hokkaido shows a relatively high proportion of university graduates among the male population and the concentration of the labor force in the service industry sector. These socioeconomic characteristics account for Hokkaido's gap to Japanese standard fertility level. 2. The multiple linear regression model in each age group shows relative high R-square (the coefficient of determination) between 0.5-0.93. However, the number of determinants tends to be lager and the model structure becomes more complicated in the cases of age groups over 35
- 北海道東海大学の論文
- 2006-03-25