比例ハザードモデルによる建築物の寿命推定及びコンクリート塊の発生量予測

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The median lifetime of buildings and the generation of demolished concrete have been estimated by the proportional hazard model considering the factors such as an economic growth rate. The trend of demolition rate obtained from the fixed assets property data of thirteen cities designated by ordinance are successfully estimated by the model. For all the cities, the median lifetimes for wooden and non wooden buildings built in 2000 are longer than those in 1950, and 43.5 and 49.1 years, respectively. The generation of demolished concrete does not increase for a while der it comes to a peak (about 28 million ton) in 1991. Then it grows again and exceeds 100 million ton in around 2030 even when a low economic growth rate is assumed after 2000.
社団法人日本建築学会の論文
2003-11-30