起きていない災害を想定する : 中越地震後の豪雪災害(シミュレーションの世界)

概要

論文の詳細を見る
An earthquake having magnitude of 6.8 had struck to the Chuetsu District, Niigata Prefecture, Oct.23, 2004. There was serious concerning about snow-hazards which should occur in sequent winter because the area is heavy snowfall region. To alleviate snow-hazard coupled with earthquake damage, snow researchers and engineers had try to make scenario of snow-related hazards on road, housing and daily life as well as avalanche, snow-thawing hazards. And then release the "Report of Prediction and Recommendation of Snow-hazard after the Chuetsu Earthquake". I had realized that the process of scenario-making and hazard-prediction is kind of "simulation", done only inside the brain with practical experience and knowledge, without computational calculation and/or scale-model experiment. As a result, Chuetsu area had experienced heavy snowfall in 2005-winter for 19 years. Totally, 269 buildings damaged by the earthquake had collapsed by snow load, and 26 persons died and 147 persons injured by snow related accidents in the winter. The article describes about the experience of "simulation inside the brain" and the results of coupling disaster. And it is also noted about the importance of "engineering sense" or "sense of field".
日本シミュレーション学会の論文
2005-12-15