ポアソン確率モデルに基づく最大風速の極値分布 : (その 1) 台風に起因する最大風速について

概要

論文の詳細を見る
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the extreme value distribution of the annual maximum wind speed due to typhoons hitting on the Japanese Islands. An analytical procedure was given under the assumptions of a Poisson's arrival process of typhoons and a distribution of the maximum wind speed. The basic parameters for the calculation such asλandβ, the average annual number and the coefficient of frequencies of typhoons hitting on meshed areas divided by two degrees in both latitude and longitude in and near Japan were estimated from the statistical data during the period from 1949 to 1978. Through the analysis, the following conclusions can be drawn; (1) Analytical distributions agreed fairly with observed ones. (2) The wind risk map for typhoons can be estimated. (3) An analytical procedure proposed in this paper appears to be useful as a probabilistic model to explain the distribution of the annual maximum wind speed.
社団法人日本建築学会の論文
1983-01-30