14. Reliability Analysis of Welded Joints with Flaws

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概要

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• The application of reliability analysis is discussed to estimate safety reduction of welded joint subjected to unfavorable effects of the hot straining embrittlement (HSE). This study is composed of three parts. Part I with respect to formulations of HSE effect describes, deterministic and probabilistic factors, a fundamental model of welded joint with two surface flaws, one of which is detected and the other undetected, and assessment of reliability under various conditions, i.e., a flaw detected by a non-destructive inspection is not repaired and be perfectly repaired with or without considering the effect of HSE. The results obtained by the numerical example suggest that the failure probability of repaired welded joint with HSE is much larger than that of repaired joint without HSE, and small detected flaws had better be left without repair if a fracture toughness might be reduced by HSE. Part II describes the parameter sensitivity study proposed by Shinozuka and applied to the model of Part I. This study is very effective to realize which parameters in a reliability analysis are important or effective to a failure probability. According to the result, the most effective parameter is the shape parameter in the probability density function of fracture toughness, and then the applied strain and factors concerning HSE. Expanding the fundamental model proposed in Part I, with some additional assumptions for the sake of simplicity, Part III presents the reliability analysis of an actual welded joint with multiple flaws. As flaws are regenerated during repairs of detected flaws, a procedure of reinspection and following repair is repeated until no flaws are detected. In accordance with the weakest link model, failure probabilities are calculated by an analytical method and the Monte Carlo simulation to verify the validity of the proposed analytical method. Comparing the reliabilities, allowable flaw sizes are derived.

• 社団法人日本船舶海洋工学会の論文

著者

• Toyoda Masao

  Department Of Hematology Nephrology And Rheumatology Akita University Graduate School Of Medicine

• Itagaki Hiroshi

  Department Of Naval Architecture And Marine Engineering Yokohama National University

• MAJIMA Atsushi

  Ship and Offshore Division, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd.

• FUKAGAWA Yozoh

  Nuclear Project Division, JGC Corporation

• ASADA Hiroo

  First Airframe Division, National Aerospace Laboratory

• Asada Hiroo

  First Airframe Division National Aerospace Laboratory

• Fukagawa Yozoh

  Nuclear Project Division Jgc Corporation

• Majima Atsushi

  Ship And Offshore Division Sumitomo Heavy Industries Ltd.

• Toyoda Masao

  Department Of General And Gastroenterological Surgery Osaka Medical College

• Itagaki Hiroshi

  Department Of Naval Architecture And Ocean Engineering Yokohama National University

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