The Gurley-Shaw Hypothesis, Growth Regressions, and Granger-Causality
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概要
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There have been broadly two methods for detecting the determinants of economic growth and per capita income of various countries. Those are regressions and time series analysis. Since the seminal work of Wallich and Barro, papers dealing with growth regression sprang up like mushrooms, probably because income gaps between the wealthy and the poor countries are one of the most urgent problems of the current world economy. After surveying important papers using the two methods, this paper suggests that time series methodology is better suited as far as the purpose is to find the direction of causality between supposed causal economic variables and economic growth or development. In the latter part, I conduct the Granger-causality tests to find out if financial development did cause more brisk economic activity for Japan's development process. The paper finally considers future directions of research if one is to follow time series analysis to clarify causality between the relevant variables.
- 千葉大学の論文
- 2004-12-15
千葉大学 | 論文
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