千葉県の特産物の計量経済分析 : 最適ラグ付モデル構築法の応用
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概要
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In this article, I briefly introduce the 'Method for Building an Optimally Lagged Model' that was established by K. Ichikawa, and then use it to show a dynamically verified analysis of several regionally unique products in Chiba Prefecture; peanut, persimmon, pear, loquat, peach. (Besides these products Chiba Prefecture has many more regional unique products; flower, soy, strawberry, liquor, a purplish sweet poteto, etc.. However, we do not analyse them here.) As one example I will show a result of an analysis of a peanut. Denoting the production of peanut by x (index), price of peanut by y (index), correlation coefficient by r, and time by t, we get y_t=202.565-1.07602x_t-1 r=-0.74567about the peanut. From this equation we can know 'When the production of peanut decreases, the price rises (⇒come to the surface) after 1 year. Although I have written several articles about regional products, please think this articles the last one as the Micro Economic Analysis. If I write an article in the future, it will be one about Macro Economic Analysis (although articles about consumption, production, and stock market were finished.), or it would be an article about the softizing of my 'Method for Building an Optimally Lagged Model.'
- 千葉大学の論文
- 2004-03-10
千葉大学 | 論文
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