モンテカルロシミュレーションによる,プロジェクト進行過程の効率的解析方法

概要

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The project, such as new product development, consists of various non deterministic jobs. Therefore, when we plan a new project, we examine the project characteristics in tems of cost, time, result quality and so forth. We often express a project as a stochastic network such as GERT. By this network model, we can analyze model parameter influences that will affect the model characteristics. In case of general GERT networks, theoretical analysis is difficult. Though Monte Calro simulation technique is powerful for the analysis, it has a week point. Namely, we cannot examine characteristic gradients; that is, partial differentials of the characteristic values with respect each network parameter. This paper proposes a new method, which consists of simulation and theoreticaI technique, in order to estimate network characteristic changes and their gradients.
社団法人日本機械学会の論文
1999-07-25