神戸市経済の地域構造変化に関する計量的研究 : 減速経済下のシミュレーション分析

概要

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This paper is a case study of the Kobe city region related to the decline of regional economic fundamentals of the Kinki area. The purpose of the paper is to try some simulations under decelerated economies by the Kobe econometric model, and to analyze regional structural changes of the Kobe economy. I built the econometric model of Kobe city, which consisted of 21 equations based on the observation period between 1965 and 1988, and had simulation trials under the several slowdown economies which the policy variables by case in exogenous variables were reduced 10 percent of the actual data in the same term, by the model. These policy variables are GNP, land price of Osaka, housing capital stocks in Kobe and suburban area, social overhead capital investment of Kobe and etc.. The result of simulations mainly shows as follows. The total employees of Kobe would be generally decreased by the negative impacts of the reduced economies in every simulation case. The land price of Osaka had the strongest magnitude of the impact on Kobe in these cases. The comprehensive simulation trial appeared that the products end employees of the secondary industry in Kobe would be recovered instead of the tertiary industry, and that the population of Kobe would be ironically increased by the positive impact on migration.
摂南大学の論文