日記天候記録から推定した小氷期後半の夏期気温変動

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Many historical documents suggest that the climate of the Little Ice Age in Japan was cool and moist, especially in summer. Among these summers, the 1780s and 1830s might have been cooler and wetter, because severe famines due to the lack of rice production occurred frequently. The 1810s is also of great interest for the reason that this decade includes 1816 which is famous for the year without a summer in Western Europe and Eastern North America.<BR>An attempt was made to reconstruct summer temperature variations and variabilities during the Little Ice Age, especialy for the period 1771-1840, based on the daily weather records of old diaries in Japan. Comparison of summer temperatures and rainfall frequencies for the recent instrumental period reveals that they are closely related in terms of the causes for hot/cool summers over East Asia. In general, a hot and dry summer is brought by the continuous sunny weather conditiones under the influence of North Pacific High. By contrast, cool and wet summer is connected with the rainy weather conditiones caused by the passage of extratropical cyclones and polar fronts.<BR>By analyzing the correlations between the number of rainy days and the grid temperature data in August for recent years, linear regression equations were derived. Using these equations, August temperatures in Northeastern Japan and Central Japan were calculated. As a result, the 1770s, the early 1810s and the late 1830s were cool, on the other hand, the late 1790s and the late 1810s to the early 1820s were relatively warm. In Central Japan, the early 1810s and the late 1820s were somewhat cool. Reconstructed temperature series in Central Japan indicates large year-to-year variabilities for the whole period.
社団法人東京地学協会の論文
1993-04-25

日記天候記録から推定した小氷期後半の夏期気温変動

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