Quantitative Risk Assessment of Acquiring Campylobacteriosis from Consumption of Ready-to-eat Beef in Arusha Municipality, Tanzania

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概要

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• Worldwide, thermophilic <I>Campylobacter</I>, especially <I>C. jejuni</I> and <I>C. coli</I> is one of the most important causes of food borne illness. In the present study, a risk for campylobacteriosis due to consumption of ready-to-eat beef in Arusha, Tanzania was assessed. Between January and March 2010, 18 beer bars serving ready to eat beef were surveyed:45 roast beef (<I>nyamachoma</I> in Swahili language) and 42 skewer beef (<I>mishikaki</I>) were collected and served for isolation of <I>C. jejuni</I> and <I>C. coli</I>. The number of customers and average sales per day were also assessed. The second survey was conducted in September 2010 to obtain the most probable number (MPN) of <I>C. jejuni</I> and <I>C. coli</I>. Forty beer bars were surveyed:30 roast beef and 10 roast chicken samples were collected and examined. A risk model was developed based on public and survey data. Dose-response relationship was modeled using medical records obtained from a separate study and literatures. Monte Carlo simulation was run for 5,000 iterations and sensitivity analysis was run for 500 iterations.<BR>Bayesian inference from two surveys showed that the contamination rates of <I>naymachoma</I> and <I>mishikaki</I> were 7.7% (90%CI:4.3%-11.8%) and 34.7% (90%CI:21.3%-49.1%) respectively. The MPN was 0.37/g (90%CI:0.03-1.2). Every day, 1.4% (90% CI:0.8-2.3%) of customers consuming either nyamachoma or mishikaki in pubs in Arusha was estimated to develop campylobacteriosis. The annual incidence was 248 (95%CI:127-406) per 1000 people among whole population of Arusha Municipality and one fourth of people was estimated to become sick once a year. The most sensitive factors were contamination rate of ready-to-eat beef and the cfu per gram. From observation, beef was well roasted and the high prevalence could be due to post-roast contamination. Hygiene training focused on such contamination would reduce the incidence greatly.

著者

• 石原 加奈子

  酪農学園大学獣医学部

• 蒔田 浩平

  酪農学園大学

• Edgar MAHUNDI

  Tanzania Food and Drugs Authority, Tanzania

• 豊巻 治也

  酪農学園大学

• Lusato KURWIJILA

  Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania

• Delia GRACE

  International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Kenya

• 石原 加奈子

  酪農学園大学

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