A Study on a Method for Presuming Total Output Fluctuation of Highly Penetrated Photovoltaic Generation Considering Mutual Smoothing Effect in a Narrow Area like Distribution Line Level

概要

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It is well known that total fluctuation of geographically diversified renewable energy (RE) such as photovoltaic generation (PV) is less than the sum of individual fluctuation. The phenomenon is called mutual smoothing effect. It is very important to evaluate the effect because cost of countermeasures to mitigate the voltage rise on distribution network caused by highly penetrated PVs' active power injection will depend in the effect. By analyzing irradiance data measured in an existing distribution line area, it turned out that fluctuation tendency is coherent at slower swing period and random at faster. This paper shows the fluctuation tendency is represented by the method called "Transfer Hypothesis". The hypothesis is verified using measured irradiance data. Finally the paper shows a presumption example of total output of highly penetrated PVs, which will be necessary for voltage rise study on a distribution line.