気象庁数値気象予報データを用いた太陽光発電大量導入時相当地点数の日射量予測精度に関する一考察

概要

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In order to maintain a soundness of power system with fluctuating highly penetrated photovoltaic generation (PV), accurate irradiance forecast will be important in the near future. A substantial amount of PVs will be penetrated on numerous points in power service area, and it is necessary to predict total PVs output for supply/demand balancing control. Therefore irradiance forecast accuracy should be verified by total irradiance on numerous points correspond to highly penetrated PVs in the area. This paper shows an accuracy study on an approach to predict area total irradiance using regional numerical weather prediction data by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Forecasted area total irradiance is compared to the presumed total area irradiance of numerous points which corresponds to highly penetrated PVs distribution.