わが国における結核死亡率の将来予測に関する試み

概要

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An attempt was made to estimate the mortality rate from tuberculosis in Japan in 1980. Mortality rate from tuberculosis by sex, by age and sex, by sex and prefecture and cohort mortality rate by sex were taken as the indices to make the estimation in 1980.<BR>The trend lines of the logarithmic transformed mortality rate for each s ex, age and prefecture group were calculated from the statistics from 1953 to 1967, and the estimation in 1980 was made by extending the lines up to 1980. Cohort analysis was also conducted to confirm the results thus obtained.<BR>It was presumed that the estimated mortality rate from tuberculosis in 1980 would be as low as 6 to 7 per 100, 000 population (9 to 10 among male and 3 to 4 among female) and that, while the rate would be on conspicuous decrease among young generation under 30 years of age, it would still remain high among elderly age groups. This presumption suggests us that an emphasis should be laid on the old age groups especially on men in conducting the tuberculosis control programme.<BR>Regarding the areal difference, the mortality will still be higher in Kyushu and Shikoku islands and some prefectures in Chugoku and Kinki districts as compared with other parts of Japan, if concentrated efforts in controlling tuberculosis would not be made to these areas.
日本結核病学会の論文