将来の市町村別人口構造の変動とその対策 : 岩手県下市町村の将来人口一斉予測を例として

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概要

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• Estimate for the population of whole country by age and sex is to be accomplished passably in accuracy by such a method as to add the number of future birth estimate and to deduct the number of future death estimate year after year. But the estimate of future regional population in land is unstable on account of the confusing factor by imigration to and from other districts in land. However, the sum of the estimate of each district in the country must be in accord with the estimate of nation-wide population which is made absolutely at the same time of the sum, while inflow and outflow of population must be cancelled each other. Therefore, when the estimate of future population will be made simultaneously all over the districts in land, and will be summed up in care of accumulating in the frame of a nation-wide population estimate, the sum of those future population estimates will be considered as a model of national population construction by age, sex and district in a state of equibrium in future. And this idea may be adopted in case of the estimate of future population in a certain prefecture also, if some suitable scale of population will be premised for this prefecture.From such a point of view, this report is made on the ground of the estimate of 62 cities, towns and villages in Iwate Prefecture from 1970 to 1985 by age and sex.In this course of estimate I put the net rate of outflow to “Z” and took some assumption of changing patterns of “Z” during the estimate period, and calculated by computer all the futur population numbers by age, sex and district according to every pattern of “Z-change” -or change of net outflow rate of population from one district-, and summed up to be in accord with a certain probable future prefectural population scale.Detail of the method is explained in this paper in due order.As the result of this estimate it is clear that many towns and villages and a few cities in Iwate-Prefecture will be oppressed with severe unbalance of population by age and sex in future, if the inreace of outflow will not cease hereafter.A suitable allocation of industry is to be considered to stop the excessive out-flow of youngers. And a harmony of population in age and sex is to be considered as a principal ideal in regional development programm.

著者

• 佐々木 宏

  岩手県立盛岡短期大学

関連論文

• 人口の抑制と分散 : 人口適正配分主導型経済計画の提唱
• 将来の市町村別人口構造の変動とその対策 : 岩手県下市町村の将来人口一斉予測を例として
• 低成長と地域開発 : 教育研究投資を中核とした地域開発の促進

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