大バブルの長期的反復の危険性

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The Panic of 2007 was a landmark in the history of capitalism in two respects. First, it marked a revival of the world financial crisis, the worst in American history with the exception of the Great Depression. Second, it was a revival of the old type depression in real term although “Great Recession” has been attenuated by the unparalleled governmentintervention of the U.S. and other countries.After confirming these points, the paper focuses on the causes of the recent American housing bubble. A systematic analysis is beyond the capability of the present writer, but several aspects thought to be important are commented upon, including: the excessive optimism that prevailed in early twenty-first century America; increasing financialglobalization and the trend of the worldwide disinflation and the consequent lowering of long-term interest rates; the transformation of American financial system toward a market oriented one since the 1980s; many problems involving the recent surge of securitization; and deficiencies and flaws in the financial regulations of the U.S. and the BIS. In the last part of the paper, the risks of recurrence of big bubbles arenoted. As excessive optimism will likely reemerge, and as the structure ofthe economy and the stance of the monetary and other macroeconomic policy that caused--or at least failed to prevent--the recent bubble seem to generally remain in place, big bubbles like the recent one will likely recur in the long run. Three matters of concern that have the potential to becomeamplifiers of bubbles or consequent financial crises in the future should bementioned: excessively growth-oriented macroeconomic policy; increasing debt burdens in areas such as the household sector and the increase of nondepositliabilities and the contingent liabilities of the financial sector; and the negative side effects of financial innovations.
2010-03-15

著者

佐々木隆雄
法政大学

大バブルの長期的反復の危険性

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