アメリカの住宅ブーム(第三部寄稿論文集)

概要

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The American housing boom, a hotly debated topic today, is said to be passing its peak. After describing some of its characteristics,this paper focuses on one aspect of the boom,the increase in house prices and its causes. The demand side factors such as the decline of the long-term interest rate since 1990's and the speculative mentality carried over from the stock market bubble in the late 1990's are recognized as the main causes of it, although the low supply elasticity of land for housing mainly in the coastal areas,a long lasting factor, is also important. In this writer's view, there is some overvaluation of prices in the American housing market ― approximately 20% of the present real house price. The degree of the overvaluation is much less than that of the Japanese housing bubble in the late 1980's, and even less than the housing bubbles today in several industrial countries such as the U.K. and Australia. However, this, the greatest housing bubble in American history since World War II, will leave behind it somenegative effects on the financial system and the slowdown of the private consumptiongrowth as housing equities, once inflated by the bubble, will fall in value. The result may be considerable restraint on economic growth in the adjustment period, although such adjustment is necessary to limit the vulnerability of the U.S. economy in international markets．
法政大学の論文
2006-03-03