蓄積と所得分配の動態パターン(<特集>ポスト・ケインズ派経済学の新たな展開と現代的課題)
スポンサーリンク
概要
- 論文の詳細を見る
Macroeconomic variables exhibit fluctuations around their long-term trends. Contemporary analysis generally separates growth trends and business cycles. Real business cycle, new Keynesian, and even Kaleckian theories which assume stable steady growth paths explain cycles through stochastic shocks whose effects on output and employment are then mediated by some propagation mechanism. In contrast, this paper provides a unified Keynesian framework of cycle and trend: we focus on Kaldorian and Robinsonian models in which the average utilization rate tends to fluctuate around a desired level that is largely independent of aggregate demand, and in which the fluctuations arise endogenously from the existence of feedback effects that make the balanced growth path locally unstable. Kaldorian and Robinsonian models have similar steady growth characteristics but differ with respect to underlying short-run dynamics. When firms find themselves with more excess capacity than they think optimal, they will either reduce the scale of their investment plans-the approach stressed by Harrod and incorporated into our Kaldorian model-or they will reduce their markup in order to increase output-the mechanism emphasized by Robinson. Another difference concerns relative adjustment speeds: Kaldorian models view price adjustment as fast (er than output adjustment); Robinsonian models reverse this assumption and treat output as the fast variable. We(i) analyze the implications of these differences for the cyclical properties of the economy and (ii) evaluate the consistency of the theoretical predictions with empirical evidence for the US. Using simple prototypes of the Kaldorian and Robinsonian position, our simulations of both models successfully reproduce some of the key patterns in the US data. This is a relatively weak test, however, and regressions fail to support Robinsonian specifications of changes in the profit share. The estimation of a Kaldorian output adjustment mechanism, by contrast, produces plausible coefficients. The estimated investment function is consistent with both the Kaldorian and Robinsonian models but violates the assumptions underlying the Kaleckian growth model: the long-run sensitivity of accumulation to changes in the utilization rate far exceeds the limits imposed by a Kaleckian stability condition. Overall, the empirical evidence gives tentative support to the Kaldorian approach.
- 経済理論学会の論文
- 2010-01-20
著者
関連論文
- 世界経済の長期下降への政治経済学アプローチ : ロバート・ブレナーの見解を中心として
- インフレ目標論と貨幣的生産経済 : クルーグマンの「流動性の罠」論の批判的検討
- 大石雄爾編, 『労働価値論の挑戦』, 大月書店, 2000年, 250頁
- マルクス貨幣論と貨幣的生産経済 : ケインズの経済システム類型論との関連で
- 金融不安定性と有効需要 : 「負債の逆説」の理論と実証
- 資本蓄積と金融 : 実現利潤の決定機構と利子率との関係
- 市場と経済的権力 : ボウルズとギンタスの「抗争交換」モデルを中心として
- 資本蓄積と所得分配 : 利潤分配率と貯蓄・投資の関係
- 価値形態の移行について
- 価値形態論の一基本問題 : 「相対的価値形態の内実」の論理
- 交換過程における貨幣の必然性
- 市場経済と価値論
- 資本蓄積と利潤率低下傾向 : 現代日本経済を中心として
- 相対的過剰人口の累進的生産の論証 : 労働力需要の増加率の逓減と賃金率変動
- 利潤率低下法則の論証 : ツガン・バラノフスキーのマルクス批判の検討
- 蓄積と所得分配の動態パターン(ポスト・ケインズ派経済学の新たな展開と現代的課題)