雲量情報を利用した太陽光発電の翌日出力予測

概要

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In recent years, to ameliorate global warming and reduce fossil energy resources, photovoltaic generation (PV) is expected to spread in the world. However, PV output is fluctuated by weather. If a lot of PVs would be directly connected to power systems, they would have some bad effect on the power systems such as imbalance of system voltage and frequency control. Therefore, it is important to forecast PV output before scheduling power systems operation. In this study, a new method for forecasting next day's PV output using the weather and cloud amount information is proposed. This method has considered seasonal PV output characteristics and degradation of the PV system. The validity of the proposed method is verified by using the actual PV output data. As a result, it is possible to orecast by approximate shape of the graph of next day's PV output. The smallest error ratio is 0.0441. Then, error ratio of forecast using weather and cloud amount information is improved by 0.0799 from error ratio of forecast using only weather information.