Economic Risk Analysis for Investment Alternatives Considering Yield and Capacity over Multiple Periods

概要

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In the recent trend of increased variety and shorter life of products in the market, the evaluation of risk for economic investment alternatives is of practical importance in manufacturing companies. In the area of engineering economics, the problem is formulated based on such assumptions as a single item, stable demand, sufficient production capacity, and/or perfect quality and yield. This paper investigates the problem based on the assumption that demand fluctuates from period to period, resulting in either a surplus or shortage of production capacity in each period. The paper also takes yield into account. The fluctuation of yield makes the problem more complicated, requiring the judgment as to whether or not capacity is in surplus or in shortage when investment risk is being evaluated. This paper assumes that the values of sales price, demand quantity, unit variable cost, and annual fixed cost fluctuate from period to period throughout the planning horizon. It proposes a domain comprising total cost and unit cost axes as a tool for analysis. A method for quantitatively evaluating investment risk alternatives is developed by applying the concept of breakeven points for the factors under consideration. The validity of the proposed method is verified using a numerical example.
社団法人日本経営工学会の論文
2010-02-15