Profit Sensitivity Analysis under Uncertainties for Cases of Production Capacity Surplus and Shortage(<Special English Issue>Industrial Management)

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概要

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• In today's uncertain economic environment, the evaluation of safety for economic alternatives is of practical importance. This paper examines the method of quantitatively evaluating profitability and risk using sensitivity coefficients. The paper assumes such factors as unit sales price, volume, unit variable cost, and fixed cost for each economic alternative. It takes into account the balance between production capacity and demand, distinguishing between cases of capacity surplus and shortage. It also takes the factor of yield into consideration. Where production capacity is in surplus, an increase in capacity does not bring about an increase in income, while in cases of production capacity shortage, an increase in capacity results in an increase in contribution margin. This paper investigates the case in which the values of each factor independently move from the originally expected values toward the direction of decreasing profit, and derives sensitivity coefficients for each of the incorporated factors, in cases of both capacity surplus and shortage. The meanings of the derived sensitivity coefficients are examined. Further, the breakeven point for each factor under consideration is derived and indicated on the total-cost unit-cost domain. An area which is safer against unexpected changes in relevant factors is elucidated. Thus, this paper proposes a systematic procedure for evaluating profitability as well as risk for economic alternatives under uncertainties distinguishing between the cases of production capacity surplus and shortage.

• 社団法人日本経営工学会の論文
• 2009-02-15

著者

• Mizumachi Tadahiro

  Department Of Electromechanics Faculty Of Science And Technology Seikei University

• Kono Hirokazu

  Graduate School Of Business Administration Keio University

関連論文

• Safety Analysis under Uncertainties for Investment Alternatives over Multiple Periods using the Total-Cost Unit-Cost Domain(Optimization and Its Applications)
• Economic Risk Analysis for Investment Alternatives Considering Yield and Capacity over Multiple Periods
• Profit Sensitivity Analysis under Uncertainties for Cases of Production Capacity Surplus and Shortage(Industrial Management)
• A SINGLE-MACHINE MULTI-PRODUCT LOT SCHEDULING PROBLEM WITH CONSIDERATION OF PRODUCT-DEPENDENT TRANSPORTATION

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